SYRIA: Kobane under pressure, Rojava at a crossroads

equinoxenews
5 days ago
2 min read

Members of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — a Kurdish-led coalition — inside the city of Kobane, Syria, on January 23, 2026. Image credit : AFP

The city of Kobane, located in northern Syria along the Turkish border, has once again become a major focal point of the Syrian conflict in recent days. Highly symbolic for the Kurds, Kobane embodies both the resistance against the Islamic State and the political heart of the autonomous Rojava project. Today, the pressure bearing down on the city goes far beyond the military sphere: it is part of a broader strategic reconfiguration of northern Syria.

Kurdish forces are preparing for a potential rapid deterioration of the situation, fully aware that Kobane represents both a territorial lock and a political symbol. Its fall or encirclement would have a major psychological and strategic impact, well beyond the city itself.

A convergence of pressures against Kurdish autonomy

The current phase illustrates a convergence of regional interests aimed at reducing—if not ending—the de facto Kurdish autonomy established for more than a decade. On one side, Turkey continues to view Syrian Kurdish forces as a direct threat to its national security. On the other, Damascus seeks to reassert full control over its territory, either by integrating or sidelining Kurdish political and military structures.

In this context, Kobane appears as an indirect strategic target: exerting maximum pressure on the city weakens the entire architecture of Rojava. The objective is not necessarily an immediate frontal assault, but a gradual erosion of Kurdish resistance capabilities through isolation, deterrence, and political coercion.

Isolation of Kurdish forces and repositioning of external actors

A key element of the current situation is the weakening of external support for Kurdish forces. Long backed for their central role in the fight against the Islamic State, they now find themselves increasingly isolated as regional and international priorities have shifted.

The defense of Kobane thus unfolds within an asymmetric balance of power: while the Kurds retain local military capabilities, they lack strong diplomatic leverage. This asymmetry heightens the sense of urgency on the ground and fuels calls for de-escalation, seen by many as the only way to avoid a confrontation with unpredictable consequences.

Kobane, a tipping point for the future of Rojava

Beyond the immediate security emergency, the situation in Kobane raises a fundamental question: can the Rojava project survive in its current form? The pressure on the city highlights the limits of an autonomy built in wartime—one that becomes fragile as the strategic environment closes in.

If Kobane holds, Rojava retains a symbolic and territorial anchor. If the city falls or remains permanently strangled, the entire Syrian Kurdish project would enter a phase of forced recomposition—either under Damascus’ authority or at the cost of major concessions.

In the short term, Kobane is therefore not merely a besieged city: it has become a decisive test for the political, security, and symbolic future of Syria’s Kurds.